Elon Musk Twitter Twist : Musk’s Big Tech ‘Best’ Offer Looks Fake

The Elon Musk -Twitter drama continues to take bizarre, unexpected turns at times, so nothing I write about here can’t last long after the ink dries. Talking about Musk in absolute terms has always been dangerous.  He’s said to be genius-level smart, but he’s done some pretty dumb things (weird tweets almost jammed him for defamation and landed him problems with the Securities and Exchange Commission).  Their child, electric-car giant Tesla, was horribly mismanaged, plagued by production issues, and nearly declared bankruptcy.  It miraculously survived and came back strong, making him the richest man in the world.

Most recently, he proposed the “best and last” for the financially weak yet ubiquitous social media company Twitter.  Price: $44 billion, or $54.20 per share (which includes pot references; “4:20” is “time to hitch” in weed-smoking culture).  This was a hefty premium to its stock price and is still heavy after the market sell-off.

Twitter’s board eventually realized that Crazy Elone was making a once-in-a-lifetime offer to its distressed investors and took the deal. Elon Musk was on the verge of buying what is called the world’s public square.  He would be the king of all media by making Twitter private and fixing its manifold business flaws (for all its effects, it has no cash flow and no earnings). He wasn’t there until suddenly.

Somewhere along the line, he got in his head that he was overpaying for a dog with fleas.  He put the deal on hold indefinitely.  His hardly credible reason for threatening to walk away: There are too many fake accounts on Twitter that can’t be monetized by him or anyone else.  He also said that Twitter is hiding this bot problem, which is tantamount to fraud.  He wants to delve deeper into the books.

If he was really concerned about the bots, he wouldn’t have waived the due diligence before signing the deal paperwork. What will happen next? The business press has always been as skeptical about Elon Musk ‘s intentions as much of Wall Street has been skeptical.  This is the reason why the stock never traded close to its offer price. For what it’s worth, here’s the perspective of two bankers, one who worked with its Tesla board, and another at a firm involved in its Twitter financing mechanism.

only on his termsThey say almost the same thing.  Elon Musk is telling people he still wants Twitter.  He thinks he can operate it as a private company, clean up the bot problem and sell it at a profit over the next five years.

 But Elon Musk wants the company (like everything else) on his own terms, which are always in flux.  He doesn’t read the balance sheet, but goes by his gut and has no problem with violating traditional banker norms (i.e. your word is your bond) to get his reward.  His gut told him to give up due diligence.  Now it’s telling him that even if he signed a deal leaving her on the hook for a $1 billion breakup fee, he can get Twitter on the table and agree to his terms, aka.  Very low purchase price.

 may be right.  Twitter previously said it would enforce the terms of the initial deal, perhaps even go to court, but now appears to be playing ball with Elon Musk  It recently said it would turn over more data on its bot issue – a move that means talks have resumed.  Bankers told me that the Twitter board knows it will be difficult to find another mover, even one that’s trading at around $40 a share.  The board can’t just accept anything, but can’t ask Elon Musk to just pound sand.

  So the thinking between my two guys is that Twitter agrees to a lower price, possibly quite a bit, and Crazy Elone gets its own public square, albeit a lot cheaper . That means the deal is on, right?  It seems like.  But with Crazy Elone no one really knows. Gensler drops Gaga Left-wing SEC chief Gary Gensler finally announced his intention to change the stock market last week.  Forget about the great deals small investors can find now: zero-commission trades and mobile apps that make stock trading seamless and affordable for beginners.

Gensler told attendees at an investor conference that bad things are happening where no one can see it;  Not a lot of trades are going to the public exchanges.  They are being sent to private trading locations known as dark pools.  Investors believe they are trading on Robinhood for free, but can get ripped off without knowing it. Gensler provided no data to show that the market is screwing small investors through its current structure.  This is his hump.

Leaving the markets on a hump is a very dangerous thing.  Especially when you’re just trying to burnish your class-warfare credentials, as most observers suspect.  The good news (and bad news for Gensler): His proposed changes will probably take years to go into effect as Congress — which will likely be in the hands of the GOP after November — debates their merits.

By then everything will be over.  His current boss, Sleepy Joe Biden, will likely be out of office, replaced by a Republican president or a sober-minded Democrat who will oppose “fixing” that doesn’t need fixing.